All clear, or almost: the Italian Local Elections and its implications for Italy and Europe

A bipolar system, the delicate game for the President and its implications for Europe

The complex vote of the 2021 local elections has given us a different Italy, once again bipolar, but at the same time inclined to a common sentiment — political, of course — in which proportional thrusts also return. In short, everything and the opposite of everything. Coalitions were designed, but heterogeneous ones. Movements in the center, but still too immature. Leaders in search of an author and a team. Different visions of the future. And in between, in the next few months, there is the game for the Quirinal (the Residence of the Italian President of the Republic), which could bring a further shake-up to the political forces.

The vote in the cities, the results, and the high abstention rate

On October 13 and 14, more than 12 million Italians (24 percent of the voting population) were called to the polls to renew the Regional Council and the President of Calabria as well as the mayors of over 1,300 cities. While the center-right candidate, Occhiuto, prevailed in Calabria, the PD (center-left) won the first round in Milan, Naples, and Bologna, with the center-right running in Rome and Turin. But it was the abstention that struck — in every sense. The leader of the Lega Nord (populist right-wing), Salvini, has focused on this with a mea culpa that he has put on the table before anyone else. There was a record of abstention, with a voter turnout at just 54.7 percent of eligible voters. This is a sign of an electoral campaign that is not very captivating or involving little-known candidates. It is possibly a saturation of political messages, or, more simply, of disaffection to be overcome. The reflection between the parties is already open.

New bipolarism with the possibility of a proportional system

Everyone agrees on what now appears to be a new form of bipolarism in place. This is a rehearsal of a system that dominated Italian politics in the last 30 years and was briefly interrupted by the rise of the big-tent Five Star Movement. On the one hand the center-right, on the other the center-left: how they will be organized between now and the next elections is to be determined. The center-right is torn between a governmental and pro-European wing supporting Mario Draghi that goes from Forza Italia to the moderate wing of the League, and an anti-EU opposition based on Giorgia Meloni (Brothers of Italy), and an ambiguous Salvini, who moved from opposing the health pass to accommodating every decision of Mario Draghi. On the other side, the Letta-Conte axis has yet to translate into a solid alliance between the Democratic Party and Five Star Movement (big-tent, left-leaning). In between, however, there is great desire for a proportional system.

The center-right: seeking leaders and redemption

Matteo Salvini, known for his strong anti-immigration and populist propaganda that boosted him to 34.3 percent at the 2019 European elections, is now tailed and often overtaken by Fratelli d’Italia. Giorgia Meloni has climbed the ranks of center-right parties in the polls thanks to her strong, nationalist and very conservative language, now standing around 20 percent next to Salvini's League. Meloni refused to talk about defeat and raised the possibility of an early vote with Draghi at the Quirinal. On the other hand, Forza Italia (Silvio Berlsuconi’s liberal-conservative and pro-European party) is satisfied due to the victory of its party member Occhiuto in Calabria, which is the only important result of the center-right coalition. Nevertheless, the party enjoys its indispensability in a coalition that needs a glue, which today appears to be still and only Silvio Berlusconi. The center-right is seeking a leader in either Salvini or Meloni, both controversial hardliners, and the liberal component is the key for the coalition to be successful at a local and national level. These are the factors that emerged from the vote. The political elections are a long way off, but time is running out. The gazes of Salvini, Meloni, and Berlusconi are all turned to the national vote. But first there is the Quirinal.

The center-left: new coalition wanted

On the flip side, there is the success of the Democratic Party and the expected but not-very-encouraging result of the Five Star Movement. The PD was the first-place party in almost every city and won the cities of Milan, Naples, and Bologna in the first round, and Rome and Turin in the runoff. On the other hand, the results of the administrative elections were also negative for the Five Stars Movement, which did not make any important gains, and its defeat has even been tempered by Giuseppe Conte's personal entrance into Italian politics. Enrico Letta, PD secretary and former Professor at Sciences Po, has remarked his commitment to enlarging the center-left coalition that comprises several parties, including the Five Stars Movement. Giuseppe Conte, former Italian Prime Minister and leader of the party since this August, has initiated a shift of the Five Star Movement towards the left, departing from the initial populist, anti-establishment and anti-European propaganda. Both leaders want to consolidate the center-left coalition, which as of now scores 41 percent in the polls. This might be a solid starting point to prepare for the 2023 Italian general elections that will take place in just over a year and provide good leverage for electing the president of the Republic.

Movements at the Center between Calenda, Renzi, and others

The political center in Italy has been weak since the 1990s, yet something is changing. On the one hand, former Italian PM Matteo Renzi has left the Democratic Party and hounded his own centrist party Italia Viva, but now scores less than two percent in the polls. Yet former minister of Renzi government Carlo Calenda is now climbing the ranks. His party Azione is at around six percent in the polls but has experienced substantial growth at a national level and received a very strong result in big cities like Rome (19 percent). Many other parliamentarians are moving in that direction and a possible shift towards the full proportional system could give more voice to this field.

PM Draghi and the race for the Quirinal

In addition to this, Mario Draghi is implementing the agenda unquestionably towards reforms, projects, and the National Recovery Plan. After simplification, recovery governance, public administration, criminal and civil justice, the prime minister is now addressing fiscal reform. All of these are necessary to obtain the 209 billion euro of the EU Recovery Plan, meaning that there is no time to waste. The government must turn its attention to concrete issues and undergo a calm navigation towards the economic revival of the country. The rest will be addressed afterwards.

Yet the cherry on top is ultimately the Quirinal, and this might have consequences at a national and European level. Since taking office, Draghi has been appreciated for his calmness and spirit of mediation, which have made him the perfect mediator in Italy's difficult politics and beyond. With Germany’s departure from 16 years of Angela Merkel and France tormented by a possible ultra-conservative turn, the former President of the European Central Bank is considered a guarantee for the European Union's stability in the years to come. These attributes have ranked him on the top list of candidates for the Italian Presidency. “Parliament will decide…” the Prime Minister replied several times to those who asked him about his possible move from Chigi Palace to the Quirinal. Many see that as a message of availability, but there are many variables. Draghi himself has explained that the country needs stability and continuity. How Italy will combine this need with the election of a new president is yet to be seen.

- Florian Heydecker