The false revival of the Moroccan political scene

On September 8, the Kingdom of Morocco held its general elections, renewing its House of

Representatives, as well as its communal and regional chambers. This election took place in the middle of the health and socio-economic crisis that has been shaking the country for

several months now. Here is a look back at this important event in the North African political

scene.

Historical background

On March 17, 2011, HM King Mohammed VI announced with great fanfare in a speech to

the nation the establishment of a new constitution in order to "complete the construction of

the rule of law and democratic institutions" in the Kingdom of Morocco. Faced with popular

demands, the Sovereign submitted to a referendum a text slightly limiting his powers and

announced that new elections would be held. The Justice and Development Party (PJD), the Moroccan branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, triumphed and entered the government for the first time in its history, thanks to its active role in the February 20 Movement1 and its

charitable networks in many poor neighborhoods.

Tale of a Disgrace

Two terms later, the Islamist party experienced the largest political decline in Morocco's

contemporary history, dropping from 120 seats out of 395 in the 2016 elections to just 12.

Normalization with Israel, signed by the former Head of Government Saad-eddine El

Othmani, has been put forward by many observers to explain the break with the party's

conservative base. However, in my opinion, this remains anecdotal as the PJD's record was

marred by a more than conflicting relationship with the Monarchy, which prevented it from

implementing the economic, social and societal reforms for which it was elected, as well as

by political problems that definitively completed the rupture between the party and large

sections of Moroccan society. This defeat is also remarkable because it is the first time that

the Islamist movement that took power in the wake of the Arab Spring has been deposed at

the ballot box.

An unprecedented participation

Despite the health restrictions imposed by the pandemic, which forced the campaigns to take place mainly on social networks, the legislative, regional and communal elections had a high turnout of 50.18%, which had not been seen since the 2000s. In addition, it is notable that turnout in the Saharan provinces (in the territory internationally known as Western Sahara) was significantly higher than in other regions of Morocco by about ten points, which helps to legally discredit the separatist intentions of the Polisario Front.

The large win of the RNI

The Rassemblement National des Indépendants (RNI) — a party close to the Monarchy with

a conservative liberal tendency and led by one of Morocco's biggest fortunes, Aziz

Akhannouch — was the clear winner of the election, taking 102 of the 395 seats in the House of Representatives. Present in all the successive governments since 2007, Aziz Akhannouch, who has just been entrusted by HM King Mohamed VI with the task of composing the government, will have to face a difficult context, as Morocco is hit hard by the consequences of the socio-economic crisis linked to the pandemic, to ever increasing levels of inequality, as well as to the distrust of a large part of the Moroccan population, which reproaches him for being entangled in scandals of conflicts of interest. His oil company Afriquia had in fact been one of the targets of a boycott campaign launched on social media in 2018 aimed at denouncing economic cartels and the lack of respect for competition. The victory of the RNI also does not mark a renewal in Moroccan political life, as the political formation has joined the last two government coalitions and occupied key ministries since 2016. It remains to be seen whether their position as leader of the future coalition will coincide with a greater control of the Monarchy over the executive or, on the contrary, a greater complacency on the part of the latter, which no longer feels threatened by the confreres' influences from abroad that weighed on the PJD.

Thus, these elections are part of the gradual democratization process initiated by the

Kingdom in the wake of the Arab Spring. The large defeat of the Islamist movement has put

political Islam in Morocco on hold. However, it would be incongruous to neglect this force in

the future, given its numerous entanglements in the Moroccan socio-associative fabric.

Finally, we must move away from analyses in terms of ideological cleavages to explain the

results. Moroccan parties still rely too heavily on clientelistic approaches and quickly

question their ideological principles in order to form coalitions that allow them to enter

government.

- Bechar Benmoumen