Rupture – Angela Merkel’s Exit and What It Means for Germany’s Future

Berlin. At 6 p.m. Central European Time, the German state television announced the first exit polls following the Federal Election. Jörg Schönenborn, the election night presenter, looked at his cards containing the results, looked up into the camera, took a breath, and said: “I can promise you numbers like we have never seen them before.” After 16 years under Angela Merkel, this would be the first time that the election outcome was actually impossible to predict. As I wrote for Le Zadig last semester: “The Greens have consistently polled at 20 percent or more, in striking distance of the CDU, while it has comfortably overtaken the SPD (…), possibly ending decades-long domination by the CDU and SPD.” While my prediction was not quite accurate, now that the results are in, we are certain that the Merkel era has ended — and there is no turning back.

A Conservative Nightmare

Let us deconstruct these results step by step, starting with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which has been leading the country for 52 years since 1949. Scoring 24.7 percent, the party received a catastrophic result in comparison to its yields of 41.5 percent in 2013 and 32.9 percent in 2017. I have previously written that this decrease was partly due to Merkel’s lack of a clear, conservative profile. Her expansion of the welfare state and her management during the events of 2015 moved the CDU to the left, arguably creating a vacuum on the right. Nonetheless, this does not explain why the CDU slumped to 24 percent from over 30 percent in polls a few months back.

This shocking result was entirely rooted in a disorganized campaign that exposed the party’s internal feuds. For starters, it took the party way too long to actually decide on a candidate for chancellor. The fight was between its chairman, Armin Laschet, and the governor of Bavaria, Markus Söder.

Throughout the campaign, Söder made his disdain for his rival no secret, repeatedly challenging Laschet in public. The latter eventually asserted himself after weeks of uncertainty. Protocols surfaced of secret, backdoor meetings between party officials, angry phone calls from local politicians, illustrating a party in disarray. While others were concerned for the country, the CDU was concerned with itself.

Things soon got worse when a severe flood struck parts of Western Germany. Laschet was caught laughing in the background while German Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier held a eulogy for the lives lost during the storms, a number which went into three-digit numbers. The photo of him smirking on such a dire occasion was a mishap from which he could not recover.

His biggest obstacle, however, was the incessant calls from his opponents within the party notifying him that he was doing a bad job, exposing internal rivalries when he needed a unified base.

Out of all the parties, The CDU was the last to present a program, and nobody really knew what a post-Merkel CDU stood for. Laschet did not either: asked on the road and on camera about his three favorite ideas from his own program, he could not provide an answer. His plan was to count on voters that had always voted CDU out of tradition, “as usual.” However, his judgement was ill-fated.

A Social Democratic Miracle

When I first wrote about this election last semester, things were not looking good for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and their candidate, Olaf Scholz. Polling at barely 15 percent, 2021 was set to be a disaster for him. The party was barely attracting attention in the media, and its successful left-wing policies implemented under Merkel were not rewarded in the polls. Yet, the SPD managed to win the election with a score of 25.7 percent, even gaining 5.2 percent from 2017.

This remarkable turnaround came down to Olaf Scholz alone. When the CDU was busy arguing out its private battles, Scholz had been declared candidate months in advance. Scholz remained calm, composed, and campaigned successfully without any unfortunate incidents or mishaps. He had been Merkel’s vice chancellor and minister of finance, and the only candidate with experience in the highest positions of government. His efforts for a global minimum corporate tax, proposed by the G7, resonated well with the German public. In three televised debates between the three candidates for chancellor, surveys indicated Scholz to have won them all. However, the results also suggest that Scholz was heavily perceived as simply the better alternative to an unsophisticated Armin Laschet and a disorganized CDU.

The SPD gained almost two million votes from those who supported the CDU in 2017, which is a highly unusual turnover rate. The SPD was also the first to formally present a program. This all suggests that this election was less about policies and ideas and more about which candidate was deemed fittest to run the country. After all, the SPD’s program proposed many ideas it could have enacted during its 12 years in government. Yet, unlike his opponents, Scholz never let his guard down and showcased statesmanship the other candidates lacked, reassuring many voters uneased by the challenging times Germany is experiencing.

The Green’s Missed Opportunity and the Youthful Free Democrats

For the first time ever, there were not two, but three candidates for chancellor. Usually, this privilege was reserved for the CDU and SPD, which used to be the only realistic contenders to win an election. However, as Germany's party landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented, the Greens sought to seize their opportunity. They had nominated Annalena Baerbock to head the campaign, and during the summer, the idea of finishing above 20 percent suddenly seemed within reach, maybe even finishing on top. Election night yielded a very strong, yet still disappointing finish of 14.8 percent.

Hopes of leaving the SPD behind were not satisfied and most Greens certainly hoped for better. Mainly, this result was caused by Baerbock stumbling unnecessarily over amateur errors: her team made mistakes in her official CV, she forgot to declare bonus salaries from party bank accounts, and her autobiography, which was supposed to launch the candidate into the German public, was filled with plagiarism. The Greens faced fierce criticism over their trustworthiness, and possibly lost many potential voters to the much more experienced Scholz, who capitalized on Baerbock’s beginner mistakes. However, the Greens campaigned as a force for change, and this was ultimately rewarded at the ballot box.

The centrist Free Democratic Party (FDP) managed to, for the first time in its history, score above 10 percent in two consecutive federal elections, with a strong finish of 11.5 percent, its second-best result ever. Together with the Greens, the FDP even scored first among first-time voters; its youthful appeal largely inspired by its chairman, Christian Lindner. Its advocacy for social mobility, including market solutions to climate change, equitable economic opportunity, and digitalization of the German bureaucracy resonated well. The Liberals’ strong finish among young voters suggests that they have managed to widen their electoral base considerably in the last eight years.

What Next?

If you by any chance read my previous piece on German politics, you will find that the increased fracturing of the German electorate is rather new. Arduous coalition bargaining could be a consequence: in 2017, it took almost six months to form a new government. In 2021, however, it is likely that politicians have learnt their lesson.

At the time of publishing, SPD, Greens and FDP have officially entered negotiations for a "traffic light" coalition. This seemed an unlikely scenario before the election — after all, the FDP has very different opinions on state finances, taxation, and government expenditure than its red and green counterparts. However, the dismal state of the CDU forced the FDP and Greens to think carefully. They have tentatively agreed to form a government by the end of November, and Olaf Scholz is set to be voted in as new chancellor during the first week of December.

It is likely that the FDP will be more assertive on economic and fiscal policy, whereas SPD and Greens will be able to execute their programs on issues related to climate change and social policy. It seems, however, that common ground unites them all: the need for change after 16 years of conservative government. The modernization of the state will be a top priority, as will be the ecological transformation of the country into the age of green industry.

Party leaders Scholz, Baerbock, and Lindner have emphasized the need for urgent and long-term climate action. Emission trading schemes, infrastructure investment and increased research and development are on the agenda. Personally, I believe this coalition could bring Germany into a greener, prosperous, and more equitable future, and it is genuinely exciting to see what will follow. Of course, official negotiations have barely yet begun, and many details remain to be worked out. However, the opportunity is there, and I hope Germany seizes it.

- Lionel Chambon