What does the ascendancy of the Taliban mean for the future of Afghanistan and its people?

Brief recap of what happened:

The United States’ military forces withdrew from Afghanistan in late August 2021, putting an end to two decades of presence in the country, an occupation which 69% of Americans found to be a failure. Thousands of Afghans crowded the Kabul airport in hopes of leaving the country to avoid the imminent Taliban takeover.

Following the U.S. troop pullout, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken articulated America’s new policy of diplomacy, noting that “the military mission is over.” Several polling results have indicated that Americans generally supported U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan prior to the decision by President Joe Biden. However, according to an NBC poll, only 25% of Americans “approve of the way Biden is handling the Afghanistan situation.” Several American politicians have criticized Biden’s withdrawal, stating that the removal of troops should have been more intentional in “prevent[ing] instability and violence,” while others have argued that the timing of the administration’s decision was off. Republican pollster Frank Lutz suggested in an article in Time that the development of Americans’ opinions depends largely on how the Taliban will operate moving forward, particularly concerning its impact on terrorism targeted at American nationals and its treatment of women.

Days after U.S. troops withdrew, the Taliban took several major Afghan cities, including the capital, Kabul. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country “to prevent bloodshed.”

What does the Taliban government look like?

The new Taliban government is composed entirely of men, many of whom are “veterans of their hard-line rule from the 1990s” as well as former combatants in the fight against the U.S. Around 90 percent of the cabinet comes from one particular ethnic group in Afghanistan. It is clear that the Taliban has not changed in its ambitions since its inception and it is logical that “leaders of the insurgency are going to find themselves with top positions in the government,” as reported by a Vox article. Overall, it can be said that the government is fundamentally homogeneous and hard-line.

Taliban Geographic Control

As of September 3, the Taliban took total control of Afghanistan when it defeated a rebel stronghold in the Panjshir valley (Reuters). A Brookings article explained how the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), one of the Taliban’s main enemies, “could become an envelope for future defections” within the Taliban due to political or ideological divides or other infighting. At the moment, though, internal opposition to Taliban rule looks relatively feeble.

Human Rights

The Taliban stated that women would be allowed to enroll in universities, but would be separated from their male counterparts, indicating a reversal of the incremental gender equity gains made in previous years. Reports from the ground suggest a completely alternate reality: “Women have already been turned away from schools and universities, ordered not to leave their homes without a male guardian, and flogged for breaching Taliban-imposed rules” (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace). Fawzia Koofi, an Afghan woman who has played a part in peace talks, noted that “people are killed without accountability” and that there are “extrajudicial killings, trials without courts.” While some commitments made by the Taliban seem to have been moderated, enforcing compliance with these ideas across all towns is not feasible. Decisions on respect of human rights seem to be made largely by leaders of localities. Interviews conducted across Afghanistan have indicated minimal school attendance levels for girls. Moreover, women were harassed and abused for protesting for greater women’s representation in the government.

The Economy and International Relations

The Taliban regime will likely lose billions in international aid from the IMF, World Bank, EU, and United States due to its international illegitimacy and persistent abuse of human rights, and because the country’s opium industry, among others, cannot ensure economic stability in the long-run. According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), 90% of the Afghan population lives under the poverty line. The CRS further explained how foreign “engagement” in the economy will likely decline following U.S. military pullout. Economic prospects in Afghanistan do not look promising.

The rise of the Taliban has influenced the geopolitical dynamics of the region, as Pakistan sees the Taliban as “a relatively friendly and reliably anti-India element.” Brookings argued that instead of imposing economic penalties on Afghanistan, which would “worsen the suffering of the Afghan people,” the West ought to mandate the minimization of extreme human rights violations.

The international response to the developments in Afghanistan will depend largely on how the situation continues to unfold, particularly regarding the protection or regression in the domain of human rights. Will the Taliban make concessions on these issues or will it continue to rule in a way reminiscent of its domination in the 1990s?

- Luca Utterwulghe